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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27043/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T10:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1225
Longitude (deg): 024E
Latitude (deg): 28N
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: Bulk material passing north and east with likely glancing impact. Low confidence.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 39.37 hour(s)
Difference: 9.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-09-23T04:30Z

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